ACC matchup pits top-25 foes in Chapel Hill

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Chapel Hill, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a deflating last second loss to rival Duke, the fifth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels seek a quick turnaround, as the welcome the 19th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers to Chapel Hill this afternoon for a key ACC clash at the Smith Center.

It will be interesting to see if there are any lingering effects from Wednesday's 85-84 loss to arch rival Duke. The loss halted a five-game win streak for North Carolina and ended a 31-game homecourt winning streak as well. It dropped Roy William's squad to 7-2 in conference play, now tied with Duke and Florida State atop the standings.

Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are one of the surprise teams in the ACC this year. The team is just a game out of first place at 6-3, thanks to wins in four of its last five games, including a lopsided 68-44 win over Wake Forest on Wednesday.

UNC holds a sizeable 125-49 advantage in the all-time series with Virginia, including wins in six of the last seven meetings overall. The Tar Heels are 63-6 in the series in Chapel Hill, including a 21-3 mark at the Smith Center.

The Cavaliers will need to slow down the explosive Tar Heels, something they have done effectively in most games this season. Virginia ranks second nationally in scoring defense (51.1 ppg), holding opponents to a mere .391 shooting. Mike Scott is one of the conference's top frontcourt performers, shooting an impressive .603 from the field overall, while pacing the Cavaliers in both scoring (17.0 ppg) and rebounding (8.3 rpg). Guards Joe Harris (12.7 ppg) and Sammy Zeglinski (8.5 ppg) provide perimeter balance. The pair have combined for 81 of the team's 117 three-pointers to date.

The Cavs were once again at their defensive best in the 24-point win over the Demon Deacons, holding Wake to a mere .341 shooting, while forcing 17 turnovers. The team got a balanced scoring effort with five double-digit scorers. Scott led the way with 19 points. Harris added 11, while Jontel Evans, Akil Mitchell and Malcolm Brogdon chipped in 10 points each.

Duke's star freshman Austin Rivers stuck a dagger in the hearts of the Chapel Hill faithful, as his three-pointer gave the Blue Devils the win at the Smith Center on Wednesday. The loss certainly spoiled terrific performances by Harrison Barnes and Tyler Zeller, who combined for 48 points. Barnes finished with 25 point, while Zeller posted a double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds. John Henson also recorded a double-double with 12 points and 17 rebounds, while Kendall Marshall almost made it a trifecta, registering 14 points and eight assists.

That formula has worked to UNC's advantage for the most part this season, as the Tar Heels are fueled by a dominant frontcourt. Barnes has the ability to score both inside and out, averaging a team-high 17.7 ppg. Zeller (15.6 ppg, 9.7 rpg) and Henson (14.2 ppg, 10.3 rpg) are a lethal duo in the paint. Marshall isn't much of a scorer (6.8 ppg) but is charged with running the nation's top scoring team (84.1 ppg), which he does to near perfection with almost 10 assists per game.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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