With Manny return behind them, LA gets back to business in San Diego

Baseball Betting Lines

07/04/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the return of Manny Ramirez now behind them, the Los Angeles Dodgers can get back to business, as they continue their three-game series with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.

Ramirez returned from a 50-game suspension on Friday and played only 5 1/2 innings, going 0-for-3 with a walk, two groundouts and a pop out, but the rest of his Dodger teammates picked up the slack and used a five-run first inning to defeat the Padres, 6-3.

The 12-time All- Star, who was greeted with a a mixture of jeers and applause in his first at-bat, was suspended on May 7 after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance.

"It was great, it was the best," Ramirez said after the game. "The fans in LA drove (to San Diego) to watch me, it was unbelievable."

Ramirez was lifted in the middle of the sixth for the speedy Juan Pierre, who made sure the Dodgers didn't miss a beat in the absence of their star outfielder. Pierre started all 50 games during the suspension, batting .318 with 14 doubles, 21 runs batted in, 31 runs scored, 15 walks and 20 steals.

"I don't think there's any question he's rusty," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said of Ramirez. "He really hasn't had a lot of practice, but I thought that first at-bat was pretty amazing. It shows how good of a hitter he is and how he knows the strike zone.

"I thought it would help the defense with (Pierre) out there (in the field) because he's been playing, and that's how I made the decision (to take Ramirez out)," Torre added.

During the suspension, LA went a respectable 29-21, maintaining their healthy lead atop the NL West standings. Although the record without him was solid in a weak National League, the team moved to 21-7 this season with him in the starting lineup.

"Everyone in the clubhouse is a professional hitter, and they can do a lot of great things without me," Ramirez said. "I'm there just to follow and bring my presence and make everyone feel comfortable."

As far as his other teammates were concerned, Russell Martin and Matt Kemp each drove in a pair of runs, as LA won for the third time in its last four games. Rafael Furcal went 4-for-5 with a run scored out of the leadoff spot, and Hiroki Kuroda (3-4) earned his second win this season against San Diego after yielding three runs on four hits with two walks and two strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings.

Jonathan Broxton earned his 20th save of the season in the win.

Adrian Gonzalez hit a two-run double, while Scott Hairston blasted a solo homer for San Diego, which has lost seven of 10. Chad Gaudin (4-7), who hurled eight one-hit, scoreless innings in Texas his last time out, was touched for six runs on seven hits, with four walks and four strikeouts, in five frames.

Going for the Dodgers today will be former Padre Randy Wolf, who is winless in his last six starts. Wolf did not get a decision on Monday against Colorado, as he allowed two runs and four hits in six innings of his team's 4-2 win.

Wolf, who is 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA, is 5-4 lifetime against the Padres with a 5.65 ERA. He was 6-10 in 21 starts for San Diego a year ago.

San Diego will counter with righty Josh Geer, who is 1-3 with a 5.68 ERA. Geer was saddled with the loss on Monday against Houston, surrendering three runs and seven hits in seven innings.

Geer did not get a decision the last time he faced the Dodgers but is 1-1 in eight games (six starts) against them with a 4.98 ERA.

The Dodgers have won eight of 11 matchups with the Padres this season and 12 of the last 16 contests between the clubs.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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